Red Frog, Inc.

(from "Business Trends" by Josh Barinstein, Copyright 2004)

What are these times all about?

Living at Speed, not Depth

Let’s begin with present times, so we can have a premise for what to expect this year and moving forward. As you will soon notice, each section will inevitably build on the previous…

The world’s economy is certainly experiencing a huge amount of growth, where major countries are no longer the only players. We now have South East Asia, led by China, as a bolstering economy. Japan is growing. The US is consistently growing, but it is no longer the sole global economic powerhouse. Countries in Latin America, Baltic countries, Central and Eastern Europe are all contributing too.

Globalization continues to grow steadily as does the rate at which things happen. We live in a fast-paced world where flow of information is getting faster, technological options are constantly increasing, and we are bombarded with advertising from every direction. And I’m sure everyone can relate to this last one.

According to Robert Kamm, author of The Superman Syndrome, "technology is forcing Americans to live at speed, not at depth." We have become a world that simply cannot move fast enough: microwaves, FAX machines, FedEx International Overnight, instant messaging, walkie-talkie cell phone connections, rapid dating, OnStar… and the list goes on. Anything we want, whatever we need, whenever we want it—is only the push of a button away. And everything—from computers to modern medicine—is about to get much faster and much smaller and much more efficient. But more on that later…

Everything is moving at a much quicker pace, something that is difficult to appreciate if we don’t look back on history a bit. For instance, in 1966, Xerox introduced a 46-pound FAX machine. In 1983, seventeen years later, there were only 300,000 FAX machines in the US. Today, FAXes can be received and sent from a computer, transmitted in real-time, sent to a cell phone; they are not only in businesses, they are in homes, hotel rooms—everywhere. The World Wide Web began in 1993. Does it seem like the Internet is only 11 years old? And the FAX machine is about to turn 40? Compared to the FAX machine, the Internet is a just a baby but, the acceptance, use and popularity of the Internet has grown exceptionally quicker than the FAX machine did.

Cable vs. the Networks

Not long ago, network television consisted of three channels: ABC, NBC and CBS. Now, in addition to those, there is FOX and the WB, and even the UPN is gaining ground. Network television has expanded and in the process, cable television has boomed. In 1981, a little channel launched and soon revolutionized basic cable and what it meant. MTV started a whole new genre for what a channel could be: personalized and specific. MTV, Music Television—all music, all the time. Now it has multiple channels nationally and internationally. Over 20 years later, MTV is still going strong—despite being initially laughed at. It didn’t take the music industry very long to realize that MTV was not a joke—but an amazing marketing tool. MTV, and its channels, has become a powerful force in the music industry today, with labels and artists pouring millions and millions of dollars on three to five minutes of marketing known as the music video.

Today, it seems as though a specialty cable channel launches weekly, doesn’t it? From A&E and Bravo, Nickelodeon, The Learning Channel, FX, PAX, The Independent Film Channel to Cartoon Network, Spike TV, The Golf Channel, and The Food Network. The list goes on and on. Any interest a person has is probably represented by a basic cable channel—or will be soon. Even premium cable channels have jumped on board with the concept of personalization: HBO, Showtime, Cinemax and The Movie Channel used to be four channels a viewer needed to subscribe to. Not anymore. Each of these channels has fragmented into their own specialized categories, from HBO Family, to Showtime Women, to More Max. They have become specialized, specific, personalized versions of the bigger channels—with appeal to specific demographics.

Demographics—not what they used to be

So let’s go ahead and discuss demographics, which are certainly not what they used to be. Traditional demographics were broad generalizations that allowed everyone to fit into an easily-classifiable category: White, Black, Other. Male or Female. Single or married. No children, 1-3 children. Urban or Rural. These broad categories don’t hold true anymore. Everything is much more specific and more defined. Married, Widowed, Divorced, Never married, living together. White, Black, Irish-Asian, Two or more of the above. Gay, Lesbian, Bi-sexual, straight, metrosexual. Educated, uneducated. Demographics have evolved into incredibly precise categories based on Life Stages instead of chronological age—a very important distinction. According to Susan Saurage-Altenloh, president of Saurage Research Inc., the "changes in our culture affecting segmentation include the expansion of women’s presence in the workplace, an increasing ethnic population and more relaxed views on gay and lesbian issues."

For example, a 50-year old woman is not one audience anymore. A 50-year old woman can be an "Empty Nester" who just sent her child to college. She can be a CEO of a company who, by choice, never married and/or never had children, and keeps herself looking like Susan Sarandon. Or she can be a single mom putting herself through college. Those are just three examples—she can be anybody. Where she is in her life now determines what her needs are. The same holds true for men. A 28-year-old man can be a lawyer climbing the ladder of success and driving his brand new Jetta. He could be a married man with his second child on the way looking for a better SUV. Or, he can be a part of the Generation X that moved home with his parents after college (or never went to college). Their needs are based on where they are in their life cycle. The "norm" now is that there is no "norm". It seems overwhelming. But it can actually be very helpful.

The concept of life stages is quite fascinating, as a matter of fact. I’ve become a huge fan myself. I’ll be talking more later about this very important distinction.

So one of the questions we can ask right off the bat when it comes to personalization and specificity is: does it pay off? And the answer is: yes! The fragmentation and splintering of traditional demographics make knowing exactly who your customers are much more specific and much easier to market to. As marketers, the more specific a picture we have of our customers the better, so that we can precisely aim our marketing efforts toward our target audience. David Morrison, president of Twentysomething Inc., agrees, saying (and this once again relatest to Cable): "The fragmentation of cable is conducive to much more effective one-to-one marketing and that’s going to make brands more relevant, it’s going to make your message ring much more true and it’s going to provide a lot more opportunities for marketers to reach out and really create a relationship with their audience." Very important reference there at the end: establishing a relationship with those you market to, something we’ll discuss be discussing more in depth as we go.

However, we should remember that the tricky part is not to narrow down our targets so much that we alienate and/or abandon other profitable markets.

Traditional demographics were broad strokes on a giant canvas—as long as the canvas got covered, the targets would be hit. Now, we’ve got teenagers and young 20-somethings, the Echo Boomers or Gen Y, influencing the buying patterns of their parents—the Baby Boomers. And Generation X is the most complex of them all. They are the smallest percentage of the population, but have very distinct attitudes. According to Susan Saurage-Altenloh, Gen X can be splintered into no less than four groups themselves! And Gen X wants to make it expressly clear that they are not part of any generation other than their own. Generation X (typically those born between 1965 and 1976) wants to be left alone, but don’t you dare alienate them.

While we’re at it, let’s reflect on the growing use and usefulness of the term "metrosexual" (a straight man that takes pride in his appearance and the finer things in life)—a market that is growing and has the money to spend. Targeting a metrosexual is vastly different than targeting the stereotypical "macho man." But not always. Think of the success of Queer Eye for the Straight Guy, in which a "macho man" is made over by homosexual men with expert tastes in fashion and style. Very interesting hybrid there…

Television and the "retro effect"

So where do we find current trends? A really useful source is television. In the 50s, a typical American family was defined by "Leave it to Beaver." In the 70s, it was Archie and Edith Bunker in "All in the Family." On network TV today, a "regular" family is a minority compared to the new concept of family. Blended families consist of a parent (or parent figure), friends, neighbors and relatives. Even "American Idol" can pinpoint a trend that has been around since MTV swept the world—the marketing of a singer based on looks and commercial appeal and not solely on talent.

There are trends that have become such a part of our society, that they seem like commonplace now. Reality television—do you remember when it was NOT on TV? Personal security has become a huge issue since September 11. Identity theft, on-line everything. In a strange way, with the onslaught of conveniences we’ve adhered to the historical model that everything is cyclical. Retro is modern—no matter which era we are revisiting.

There is also a comfort level in all things retro. They take us, as consumers, back to a simpler time. As marketers, it can be used to great advantage. It also targets two generations of people (in a broad sense). For example, the 80’s are back*—the necks cut out of sweatshirts, ala Jennifer Beals in Flashdance (as cloned by a recent Jennifer Lopez video). Retro appeals to the people that went through it originally and the newest generation. However, it can be tricky to market to two targets at once without the "parent" generation thinking their innocent, pristine past has been tainted by modern ideas or… the "child" generation thinking what their parents did was hokey and undesirable.

Advertising and Marketing in the present tense

So how do Marketing and Advertising relate to the "now." Advertising and Marketing are no exception to the waves of change. Right now, we are on the verge of what I’d like to call "Adverscreaming." Everywhere you look, as a consumer, there is an ad shouting for your attention. From traditional media like TV, radio, magazines and newspapers to gas pumps, pop-ups, banner ads, and bathroom stalls. There is seemingly no escape. And it’s only going to get louder. As consumers, we’re annoyed. As marketers, we’re in trouble and need to come up with innovative ways to reach our consumers. And in reaching our target audiences, our demographics are not as clear as they used to be.

So what do we do? Jump on the bandwagon? Throw our names and our products everywhere we can in hopes that our consumers will magically respond? Do we stop advertising altogether? The answer is yes—well… somewhat. First off, we need to stay focused. If we let our heads spin over what’s coming from every direction, we lose our focus. We can’t charge ahead confidently and successfully if we aren’t aware, prepared and focused. Do we need to abandon traditional ideas to reach consumers? Absolutely not—we can take what has been proven to work and adapt it in order to stand out to our consumers. We need to keep on top of trends. We need to know what is working for consumers and what has become background noise or muted visuals on a TV screen.

I said it earlier, and this is indeed a theme in this presentation today. At the end of the day, no matter what the approach in terms of strategy, or actual tactics in terms of the matching gameplan, it’s about the relationship you have with your audience. If you can speak to them in a ways that relate to their needs, keeping them informed over time until they are comfortable and ready to engage in business with you, than that’s the magic pill—the key to slicing through the clutter that is out there.

But you are all here to learn more about trends, so let us move into the next section and come back to this important area of what is considered good Marketing and Advertising…

Back to teleconference index

Josh Barinstein is President of Red Frog, Inc., the Southern California ad agency that provides worry-free experiences and powerful results in the areas of Marketing, Print design, and Web/CD-ROM development.

Learn more at www.RedFrogInc.com or by calling 888-955-0550.

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